PDA

View Full Version : Weather alert



Gemani2
23-10-2013, 14:53
Hi folks

FYI

My son who works in home insurance claims has had notification today of the need for emergency staff rotas for next week to cope with an increase of calls/ claims....this is due to an expected 'storm surge' in the uk Sunday, peaking early Monday. Severe Gail force winds and rain

Batten down the hatches! It's expected to be the first 'blow' of the autumn and the worst that we've had for many years

Admin
23-10-2013, 15:54
The storm has even got a name, St Jude.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10399012/Britons-warned-to-batten-down-the-hatches-ahead-of-storm.html

frontslide
23-10-2013, 15:55
Some one should tell the met office.
Severe weather warnings - Met Office (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382482800)

Smaug
23-10-2013, 16:09
There are several different weather models in use for forecasting & they are not all giving the same predictions for the current set of circumstances. Some are saying severe gales & others suggest no more than a tad windy & typical for the time of year.

XCWeather (http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast) is usually pretty good & they are not anticipating anything disastrous, around f7-8 ish (ie strong breeze to gale)

frontslide
23-10-2013, 16:27
Newspapers = Bullsh*t

Smaug
23-10-2013, 20:35
Update from Simon Keeling (independent weather expert, you may have seen him on TV) relating to Solent area;

"Severe gales Monday with a possibility of F10 - F11 storms"

His web site (http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php)is here, he is good. Usual disclaimer, no connection, just that I have noticed that his forecasts tend to be accurate - as far as any forecast can be.

NeilyG
23-10-2013, 21:05
Just goes to show that so many huge computers making trillions of calculations every second still can't agree on the weather 5 days ahead. Can you trust what they say about climate change?

Smaug
23-10-2013, 21:35
Just goes to show that so many huge computers making trillions of calculations every second still can't agree on the weather 5 days ahead. Can you trust what they say about climate change?

That's a non-sequiteur, there is no correlation.

The problem with weather forecasting is the modelling. It is a lot better than it used to be because it is constantly being tweaked to improve it, but modelling theory is extremely complex statistical maths. There is still no agreement over the variables that drive the weather, never mind the effect of those variables, that's why there are different models & this causes the different forecasts.

In general terms, forecasting is extremely good, but we are demanding more detail about regional variations & timing is still very difficult as fronts can speed up or slow down without warning.

Almost all scientific sources accept that Climate Change is happening, the people who deny it are all utterly unqualified to comment, many have personal agendas or simply do not want to hear the bad news.

But hey, ho I expect your answer will be to bring out your troll icons again.

maingate
23-10-2013, 21:35
I have consulted my Seaweed and Acorns and it looks like the North East will miss the worst of it.

A bit nearer the time I will don my Monkey tails and throw the bones to give you all a more accurate forecast.

It's the least I can do for friends. :dance:

runnach
23-10-2013, 21:41
I have consulted my Seaweed and Acorns

Sounds painful, did the missus give a hand?? ;)

maingate
23-10-2013, 21:47
Sounds painful, did the missus give a hand?? ;)

You Scottish heathen, you have no understanding of science. :mad1:

FULL TIMER
23-10-2013, 22:10
Just goes to show that so many huge computers making trillions of calculations every second still can't agree on the weather 5 days ahead. Can you trust what they say about climate change?

NO

NeilyG
23-10-2013, 22:21
That's a non-sequiteur, there is no correlation.
The problem with weather forecasting is the modelling. It is a lot better than it used to be because it is constantly being tweaked to improve it, but modelling theory is extremely complex statistical maths. There is still no agreement over the variables that drive the weather, never mind the effect of those variables, that's why there are different models & this causes the different forecasts.
In general terms, forecasting is extremely good, but we are demanding more detail about regional variations & timing is still very difficult as fronts can speed up or slow down without warning.
Almost all scientific sources accept that Climate Change is happening, the people who deny it are all utterly unqualified to comment, many have personal agendas or simply do not want to hear the bad news.

But hey, ho I expect your answer will be to bring out your troll icons again.

http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons/emoticon-object-049.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/emoticons.php)

Wooie1958
24-10-2013, 06:38
Weather forecasters predict storms, wind, thunder and heavy rain in the UK for end of October 2013 - AOL Travel UK (http://travel.aol.co.uk/2013/10/23/uk-weather-forecast-britain-storm-rain-wind-october/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cukt4%7Cdl2%7Csec1_lnk1%26pLid%3D218018)

Bopper
24-10-2013, 07:42
Email from a Mr Michael Fish.

"What Gale,? what rain"?


CLICK HERE TO REMOVE THESE ADVERTS